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Brexit Deal Inches Nearer as Key Boris Johnson Ally Threatens Hold-Out

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. and European Union officials edged closer to a last-minute Brexit deal -- but it risks being jeopardized by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Northern Irish allies.Talks will resume in Brussels on Wednesday after dragging on late into the night, according to an EU official. Britain and the EU have hammered out most of their differences over the past 48 hours.Getting a deal signed off in Brussels is just the first hurdle for Johnson. His biggest obstacle is back home. There, he will need to persuade the Democratic Unionist Party, which props up his minority administration, as well as hard-liners in his own Conservative Party to back his plan. A Brexit deal has been struck before: Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May clinched a deal with the EU, only for it to be shot down three times in Parliament.This time, EU officials say Johnson won’t give the green light to a deal unless he is sure the DUP will back it. Party leader Arlene Foster spoke with Johnson for 90 minutes on Tuesday. Afterward, she issued a terse statement saying: “It would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required.”According to EU officials, Britain has made several big concessions in recent days to secure a deal, including accepting there will be customs checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. -- something vehemently opposed by the DUP.While Foster’s party accounts for only 10 members of Parliament, several MPs in Johnson’s Conservatives have indicated they would only back an agreement that has the DUP’s support. But there were signs on Tuesday that they are falling into line after discussions with Johnson.“I’m happy to say it was a very constructive conversation,” Steve Baker, chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, told reporters as he left Downing Street. “I’m optimistic it is possible to reach a tolerable deal which I will be able to vote for.”A deal would end three years of political turmoil since the U.K. voted to leave the world’s biggest trading bloc. The journey has tested its relationship with historic allies, soured the political debate back home, and tested the patience of voters. Fatigue has set in, and both sides want to move on.“The initial indications are that we are making progress,” Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told reporters in Dublin on Tuesday. “The negotiations are moving in the right direction.”While there is palpable optimism that the finishing line is approaching, officials are extremely cautious. Throughout the Brexit talks, which started in July 2017, negotiators have got used to striking deals only for them to be shot down by the British government, the DUP or the U.K. Parliament.Johnson hopes to put a deal to the vote in a special sitting of the House of Commons on Saturday so he can meet his Oct. 31 deadline for leaving the bloc.Securing the DUP’s support may not be easy because the emerging proposal looks similar to May’s Northern Ireland “backstop” -- a measure that would keep the province in the EU customs union to avoid the need for border checks.Red LinesThe party needs “a deal that respects Northern Ireland’s constitutional position as per the Belfast Agreement within the U.K. and indeed respects the economic integrity of the U.K. single market,” Foster said in an interview with Irish broadcaster RTE. She suggested that such a backstop would be unacceptable and that “things are very far off the mark in terms of all of that.”Johnson’s plan focuses on keeping Northern Ireland in the U.K.’s customs union so that it can benefit from any trade deals Britain strikes after Brexit. But to avoid customs checks at the Irish border, the province would stick to EU customs rules. That means goods traveling from the rest of the U.K. to Northern Ireland would be subject to customs checks.Negotiators have been looking at ways to reimburse Northern Irish businesses in case EU tariffs are higher than U.K. ones and how to avoid goods fraudulently traveling to the EU through Northern Ireland.One diplomat said there’s a chance the two sides may not conclude the talks tonight, but they could still make sufficient progress for a “concept” of a legal text to be presented at the summit. This wouldn’t be a fully ready deal, but its main principles would be clearly outlined, according to the official.In that case, it is possible that the leaders will decide that negotiations can continue after the summit. But some fear that a delay would kill the current momentum in the talks.To contact the reporter on this story: Ian Wishart in Brussels at iwishart@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Edward Evans, Flavia Krause-JacksonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Campaign: Warren's call to exit Mideast means combat troops

Sen. Elizabeth Warren's call Tuesday night for the United States to "get out" of the Middle East, if implemented, would end a generations-long U.S. military presence in the volatile region. "I think that we ought to get out of the Middle East," Warren said in a Democratic presidential debate during a discussion of President Donald Trump's decision to pull troops out of Syria. "I don't think we should have troops in the Middle East," she added.

China Threatens to Retaliate If U.S. Enacts Hong Kong Bill

(Bloomberg) -- China threatened unspecified “strong countermeasures” if the U.S. Congress enacts legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters, in a sign of the deepening strain between the world’s two largest economies as they attempt to seal a trade deal.China’s foreign ministry issued the warning Wednesday after the U.S. House passed a package of measures backing a pro-democracy movement that has rocked the former British colony for more than four months. Among them was the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which subjects the city’s special U.S. trading status to annual reviews and provides for sanctions against officials deemed responsible for undermining its “fundamental freedoms and autonomy.”While the legislation must also pass the U.S. Senate and be signed by President Donald Trump to become law, it already has strong bipartisan support in the Republican-run upper chamber. The Hong Kong measures was passed by the Democrat-controlled House by unanimous voice votes Tuesday.Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Geng Shuang warned American lawmakers to stop meddling in China’s internal affairs “before falling off the edge of the cliff,” without specifying how it would retaliate. The House action “fully exposes the shocking hypocrisy of some in the U.S. on human rights and democracy and their malicious intention to undermine Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability to contain China’s development,” Geng said.The threat dented investor appetite for risk, with S&P 500 Index futures slipping 0.2%. The offshore yuan also dropped as much as 0.3% to 7.1049 against the dollar after the statement.Both Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have so far prevented the international uproar over Hong Kong from scuttling their trade talks. The two sides went ahead with negotiations and reached some broad agreements last week, even though the House vote was widely expected at the time.“I don’t think this will undermine the prospect of signing a partial deal next month,” said Wang Huiyao, an adviser to China’s cabinet and founder of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing. “The Hong Kong bill is not a done deal and there is still room for redemption.”A spokesman for the Hong Kong government “expressed regret” over the House action, which came hours before Chief Executive Carrie Lam was slated to deliver her annual policy address. Earlier this week, tens of thousands of protesters gathered in Hong Kong’s central district urging the legislation’s passage as sign of international support, many of them waving American flags.U.S. lawmakers have embraced the Hong Kong protesters’ cause as the yearlong trade war fuels American support for pushing back against China, and they have hosted some of the city’s activists on Capitol Hill in recent weeks. The National Basketball Association’s struggle to manage Chinese backlash against a Houston Rockets executive’s support for the movement has only focused wider attention on the debate.On Tuesday, the House passed H.Res. 543, a resolution reaffirming the relationship between the U.S. and Hong Kong, condemning Chinese interference in the region and voicing support for protesters. Lawmakers also passed the Protect Hong Kong Act, H.R. 4270, which would halt the export to Hong Kong of crowd-control devices such as tear gas and rubber bullets.Representative Chris Smith, a New Jersey Republican and a sponsor of the main Hong Kong bill, predicted that the Senate would pass the legislation and dismissed the threats from Beijing.“Retaliation, that’s all they ever talk,” Smith told Bloomberg TV. “They try to browbeat and cower people, countries, presidents, prime ministers and the like all over in order to get them to back off. We believe that human rights are so elemental, and so in need of protection. And that’s why the students and the young people are out in the streets in Hong Kong virtually every day.”In addition, the House adopted a resolution by Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel of New York and the panel’s top Republican, Michael McCaul of Texas, urging Canada to start U.S. extradition proceedings against Huawei Technologies Co. executive Meng Wanzhou. The resolution, H.Res. 521, also calls for the release of two Canadians detained in China and due process for a third sentenced to death for drug smuggling.Republican Senators Rick Scott of Florida, Ted Cruz of Texas and Josh Hawley of Missouri visited Hong Kong over the two-week congressional recess that ended Tuesday. Hawley met with local pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong and got into a back-and-forth with Lam over whether Hong Kong is a becoming a “police state.”The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ local branch in the city issued a separate statement warning the U.S. against “playing the Hong Kong card.” “They are lifting the stone only to drop it on their own feet,” it said.David Zweig, an emeritus professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and director of Transnational China Consulting Ltd., noted that the U.S. legislation stopped short of altering the Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, which provides the city’s special trading status. So both the bill and any Chinese retaliation would have limited impact.“China needs to posture with a retaliation of some kind,” Zweig said. “But this is really a secondary issue as long as they keep the Hong Kong Policy Act intact. The House could have gone much further with the Hong Kong Policy Act. And they didn’t.”\--With assistance from Li Liu, Sofia Horta e Costa, Tan Hwee Ann and Anna Edgerton.To contact the reporters on this story: Iain Marlow in Hong Kong at imarlow1@bloomberg.net;Daniel Flatley in Washington at dflatley1@bloomberg.net;Dandan Li in Beijing at dli395@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Brendan Scott at bscott66@bloomberg.net, ;Joe Sobczyk at jsobczyk@bloomberg.net, John HarneyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Biden warns Isis fighters will strike US over Syria withdrawal

Former vice-president said at Democratic debate ‘they are going to damage’ the US and blasted Trump for abandoning Kurdish alliesJoe Biden speaks at the Democratic debate in Westerville, Ohio, on 15 October. Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/ReutersThe former US vice-president Joe Biden warned during a Democratic debate on Tuesday night that Islamic State fighters would strike the US as a result of Donald Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of American forces in northern Syria.“We have Isis that’s going to come here,” Biden said. “They are going to damage the United States of America. That’s why we got involved in the first place.”An invasion of north-eastern Syria by Turkey last week after Trump announced the withdrawal of US forces on Twitter has resulted in numerous reports of detained Isis fighters breaking out of – or simply walking away from – prisons where they had been held by Kurdish fighters formerly allied with the US who are now under attack from Turkish forces.Biden also warned that he believed if Trump were re-elected in November 2020, “there will be no Nato”.The architects of the so-called “war on terror”, and especially the Republican backers of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and an expansive US presence in the Middle East, have long warned that the US must intervene abroad in order to prevent attacks at home.Questioned on Friday about a potential risk posed by Isis fighters freed amid the Syrian turmoil, Trump said it was Europe’s problem.“Well, they are going to be escaping to Europe, that’s where they want to go,” he said. “They want to go back to their homes.”Multiple Democratic candidates at the primary debate in Ohio condemned what they called Trump’s betrayal of American allies in the region.“I’d like to hear from him about how leaving the Kurds for slaughter, leaving our allies for slaughter, makes America great again,” the Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar said.But it was Biden, the longtime chairman of the foreign relations committee during his Senate days, who offered the most scathing assessment of Trump’s foreign policy – and presented the most alarming picture of its potential consequences.Biden noted that he was the only candidate on stage to have dealt personally with both Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.“Erdoğan understands that if he is out of Nato, he is in real trouble,” Biden said. “But we have an erratic crazy president who knows not a damn thing about foreign policy and operates only [to advance] his own re-election.“If he gets re-elected,” Biden continued, “I promise you there will be no Nato, our security will be vastly underrated, we will be in real trouble.”Biden blasted Trump for abandoning Kurdish allies in northern Syria. “It has been the most shameful thing that any president has done in modern history in terms of foreign policy,” he said. “This is shameful, shameful, what this man has done.”In his closing statement, Biden returned once more to attacking Trump: “This president has ripped the soul out of this country.”In another fiery exchange, the two veterans on the stage – Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and the Hawaii representative Tulsi Gabbard – clashed over Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, which paved the way for a Turkish military assault on Syrian Kurds.Gabbard, who has been sharply criticized over a meeting with the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, accused Trump of having the “blood of the Kurds on his hands” but she continued: “So do many of the politicians in both parties who supported this regime change war.”Buttigieg shot back that she was “dead wrong”.“You can put an end to endless war without embracing Donald Trump’s policy, as you’re doing,” he said.Lauren Gambino contributed reporting

Winners and losers in the Democratic debate from columnist Glenn Harlan Reynolds

Vladimir Putin was among the surprise losers of the latest Democratic debate. Liberals now admit Russia is a foe.

EU, UK seen closing in on 'possible' Brexit text

Brussels hopes to wake up to a Brexit breakthrough Wednesday as EU and British negotiators worked hard through the night on a draft agreement. The pound hit its highest level in five months after both sides voiced cautious optimism that an outline agreement could be found before Thursday's key European summit. Any deal would still have to go to EU leaders at that summit and then be voted on by a sceptical British parliament -- perhaps as early as during a special session on Saturday.

The Latest: Pelosi says 'all roads seem to lead to Putin'

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says "all roads seem to lead to Putin" when it comes to President Donald Trump. The California Democrat told reporters Tuesday that nevertheless, she's not going to call for a formal House vote on impeachment.

Nancy Pelosi On Impeachment: 'All Roads Seem To Lead To Putin'

The House speaker linked Russian President Vladimir Putin with President Donald Trump during a news conference.

Fearing US abandonment, Kurds kept back channels wide open

When Syria's Kurdish fighters, America's longtime battlefield allies against the Islamic State, announced over the weekend that they were switching sides and joining up with Damascus and Moscow, it seemed like a moment of geopolitical whiplash. Fearing U.S. abandonment, the Kurds opened a back channel to the Syrian government and the Russians in 2018, and those talks ramped up significantly in recent weeks, American, Kurdish and Russian officials told The Associated Press. "We warned the Kurds that the Americans will ditch them," Russia's ambassador to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, told Russia's Tass news agency on Monday.

The Latest: House to vote on bipartisan Syria resolution

The House plans to vote Wednesday on a bipartisan resolution opposing President Donald Trump's withdrawal of American troops from northeastern Syria. The measure underscores an overwhelming congressional consensus that Trump's decision has damaged U.S. interests in the region and helped adversaries, including the Islamic State, Russia and Iran. The withdrawal prompted Turkey's attacks on Syrian Kurds, who'd been the top U.S. ally in the region against Islamic State fighters.

US charges Turkey's Halkbank with evading Iran sanctions

US federal prosecutors filed criminal charges against Turkey's state-run Halkbank Tuesday for allegedly participating in a multi-billion-dollar scheme to evade economic sanctions on Iran. "This is one of the most serious Iran sanctions violations we have seen," Assistant Attorney General John Demers said in a statement announcing the indictment. The indictment comes at an extremely sensitive time between Washington and Ankara after the US slapped sanctions on Turkey on Monday over its military offensive against Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria.

Russia seeks to cement its role as power broker in Syria

Russia moved to fill the void left by the United States in northern Syria on Tuesday, deploying troops to keep apart advancing Syrian government forces and Turkish troops. At the same time, tensions grew within NATO as Turkey defied growing condemnation of its invasion from its Western allies. Now in its seventh day, Turkey's offensive against Kurdish fighters has caused tens of thousands to flee their homes, has upended alliances and is re-drawing the map of northern Syria for yet another time in the 8-year-old war.

EU, U.K. Negotiators Closing In on a Draft Deal: Brexit Update

(Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.U.K. and European Union negotiators are closing in on a draft Brexit deal amid optimism there could be a breakthrough before the end of Tuesday, two EU officials said.They cautioned talks haven’t yet finished, and there could be problems hitting the midnight deadline. But there are clear signs that a legal text is close to being ready.The aim would be to present the draft to national delegations on Wednesday morning, an EU diplomat said. The pound surged, climbing as much as 1.2% to $1.2756, the highest level in nearly four months.Prime Minister Boris Johnson will still need to secure the agreement of the U.K. Parliament. Negotiators have approached, and even managed to strike, a Brexit deal before -- only to see it shot down in London. Any concession Johnson makes to secure a deal in Brussels risks incurring the opposition of the Democratic Unionist Party, whose support will be vital for any agreement to pass.All time stamps below are Brussels time (CET).Key developments:EU, U.K. negotiators said to be closing in on draft Brexit dealPound traders are gearing up for a nail-biting finish to BrexitJohnson still needs to persuade his Northern Irish alliesSplits in Tory Ranks Over Deal Proposal (11:45 p.m.)In a sign of trouble ahead for Johnson, the Sun reports that two senior members of his Conservative Party, Iain Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson, are unhappy with the compromises the prime minister is said to be making over Northern Ireland. Duncan Smith is a former Tory leader, and Paterson was Northern Ireland Secretary. “When would any other country ever give up part of its territory as part of trade talks?“ Paterson told the newspaper in an interview. The danger for Johnson is that once some Brexit-backers start to oppose the deal, it will be harder for others not to join them.DUP: ‘Gaps Remain’ on Proposed Deal (10:15 p.m.)Johnson spent around 90 minutes this evening speaking to Arlene Foster, leader of his Democratic Unionist Party allies, along with Nigel Dodds, who leads their contingent in Parliament. They issued a brief statement afterward: “We respect the fact negotiations are ongoing therefore cannot give a detailed commentary but it would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required.”The Northern Ireland-Only Backstop (9:45 p.m.)An EU diplomat, speaking privately, said that the two sides were working on the basis of the old, Northern Ireland-only backstop. Michel Barnier has previously said that the further negotiators move from this off-the-shelf legal text, the longer and more complicated negotiations will be.The diplomat said there’s a chance the two sides won’t conclude the talks tonight, but they could still make sufficient progress for a “concept” of a legal text to be presented at the summit. This would not be a fully ready deal, but its main principles would be clearly outlined, according to the official.In that case, it is possible that the leaders will decide that negotiations can continue after the summit. But some fear that a delay would kill the momentum currently in the talks.Another Push For a Second Referendum (9:30 p.m.)The anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats are pushing for any deal to be put back to the public in another referendum. They’ve put down a motion to go before Parliament on Oct. 22, calling for one. On its own, that vote wouldn’t do the job, but it would demonstrate the level of support in Parliament for the idea. “We cannot predict from one day to the next what will happen in Parliament,“ Tom Brake, one of the MPs behind the move, said. “We need to be ready for all eventualities and to press the people’s vote case at every turn.”DUP Cautious About Potential Deal (7:30 p.m.)Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster has given a wary reaction to the developments, emphasizing that any deal must not threaten the unity of the U.K. We need “a deal that respects Northern Ireland’s constitutional position as per the Belfast Agreement within the United Kingdom and indeed respects the economic integrity of the U.K. single market,” she said in an interview with RTE.Foster suggested the idea of a Northern Ireland-only backstop plan, which has been mooted, won’t be acceptable. “I think that things are very far off the mark in terms of all of that,” she said.But Foster said she expected to engage in further discussions with Johnson later on Tuesday and would be working with the government to try to achieve a deal.Davis: Time to Back Johnson’s Deal (7:15 p.m.)Former Brexit Secretary David Davis has urged his Conservative colleagues to back any deal Johnson can reach. Talking to Sky News, he said his message to the “Spartans” -- the Tory MPs who have so far refused to back any deal, taking their name from ancient Greek warriors who refused to surrender -- was to remember that “the Spartans lost!”Baker: ‘Optimistic’ Johnson Will Get ‘Tolerable’ Deal (7 p.m.)Steve Baker, chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, and a man who refused to vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal, has left Downing Street after talks on what Johnson is trying to achieve. He sounded like he was minded to support the prime minister, something that raises significantly the chances of a deal passing Parliament. “I’m happy to say it was a very constructive conversation,” Baker told reporters, “and I’m optimistic it is possible to reach a tolerable deal which I’ll be able to vote for.”EU Envoys To Meet Wednesday Afternoon (6:30 p.m.)Ambassadors from the 27 remaining EU governments will be briefed by European Commission negotiators at 2 p.m. on Wednesday.This could be the moment when we find out officially whether Johnson has a deal to take to the summit of leaders on Thursday.Varadkar: Gaps Remain as Talks Make Progress (5:30 p.m.)Irish premier Leo Varadkar said Brexit talks have made “progress,” and are moving in the right direction, but as of a few hours ago, significant gaps still remain between the EU position and that of the U.K. The key difference remains on plans for customs checks on the island of Ireland.Speaking to reporters in Dublin, Varadkar said the situation may have developed in the last few hours and he would be briefed this evening on developments.Negotiators Closing In on Draft Brexit Deal (4:30 p.m.)A dramatic breakthrough in negotiations could come within hours after a productive day of intensive talks in Brussels so far. The British side submitted revised proposals for a deal which appear to have unlocked progress.The U.K’s plans are shrouded in secrecy but the focus is on Northern Ireland’s relationship to the EU’s customs union and the degree to which checks on goods crossing the Irish border can be eliminated. That border has been the scene of violence for decades until the late 1990s and both sides are committed to protecting the peace, which border posts could undermine.Two EU officials suggested that the U.K. had accepted that customs checks would have to take place on goods traveling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland -- in other words between two parts of the U.K. -- rather than at the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.That’s something that Theresa May ruled out, and Boris Johnson’s Northern Irish allies in the Democratic Unionist Party has previously said they cannot support. This means getting a deal on these lines through a vote in Britain’s Parliament could be difficult.Saturday Sitting Will Depend on Talks: Rees-Mogg (3:15 p.m.)Leader of the House of Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg said it still hasn’t been decided if the U.K. Parliament should meet on Saturday, and events at the summit of EU leaders on Thursday and Friday will determine if it does.“The events that might require a Saturday sitting have not yet reached their fruition,” Rees-Mogg told the House of Commons. “It will only happen if we have something, subject to what happens in European Council, to debate on Saturday.”He said Parliament meeting on a Saturday for only the fourth time in 70 years would be necessary to fulfill the terms of the Benn Act, which requires Boris Johnson to write to the EU to request an extension if a Brexit agreement has not been reached by then. Chris Leslie, a Labour MP who backed the legislation, said it does not need Parliament to meet for the law to be obeyed.Finnish PM Says U.K. Making ‘Real Effort’ (1:45 p.m.)Finnish Prime Minister Antti Rinne said an extension to Brexit may come up at the EU leaders’ summit at the end of the week and there are grounds to consider it.Rinne, whose views are significant because his country holds the rotating presidency of the bloc, also said it’s possible an extra summit on Brexit will be needed before the end of the month. “It makes sense to try to reach a common view until the last moment,” Rinne told reporters in Helsinki.“For the first time during this process I have a feeling the U.K. is making a real effort,” he said. “Britain’s actions have shown it is seeking a deal to avoid a hard Brexit.”Johnson, Macron Had ‘Constructive’ Brexit Call (12:48 p.m.)Boris Johnson discussed Brexit with French President Emmanuel Macron in a 20 minute phone call, Johnson’s spokesman, James Slack, told reporters in London.“It was constructive. I would say it was a good discussion,” Slack said, without giving further details of the discussion.The U.K. is working hard to reach a deal with the bloc as time runs short before Thursday’s summit of EU leaders in Brussels, Slack said.The Pound Pares Earlier Gains (12:25 p.m.)After rallying on Barnier’s comments that a deal is possible this week, the pound pared some of its gains, as details emerged from the meeting of EU ministers in Luxembourg, in which remaining sticking points were highlighted.It was still up by 0.3% against the dollar as of 12:20 p.m in Brussels, amid cautious optimism that an accord is within grasp. The whipsaw between positive and skeptical headlines pushed one-week volatility to its highest since July 2016.France Says U.K. Made Serious Brexit Proposal (12:14 p.m.)The French government believes that the U.K. presented a “serious proposal” to exit the EU, though it’s too early to say if there will be a deal by the European summit later this week.The situation regarding Brexit must be clear before the EU leaders meet on Thursday in Brussels, about two weeks prior to the Oct. 31 deadline for the U.K.’s exit from the bloc, a French presidency official said during a briefing with reporters in Paris.JPMorgan Says Pare Back No-Deal Brexit Protection (12:12 p.m.)JPMorgan Chase & Co. credit strategists are so confident that the U.K. will avoid crashing out of the EU without a deal this month that they recommend closing Brexit hedges on no-deal exposed borrowers such as Lloyds Banking Group Plc and ITV Plc.Coveney Says “Today is a Key Day” (12:00 p.m.)“This isn’t the time for optimism or pessimism,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney told reporters in Luxembourg after the meeting with his EU counterparts and Barnier. “The negotiating teams have made progress but it’s been slow,” he added.“This is difficult, but it is possible,” according to Coveney, who reiterated that EU leaders aren’t willing to negotiate on a legal text. Such text must be finalized by negotiating teams.“Today is a key day,” he said. “I don’t want to raise expectations, but later on today or this evening, but if there is going to be a positive report that is needed in EU capitals tomorrow in advance of the EU Summit, well clearly, a big step forward needs to happen today.”Barnier’s Cautious Optimism (11:35 a.m.)Barnier was cautiously optimistic about the prospect of a Brexit deal during his meeting in Luxembourg with EU ministers, according to a national official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. A breakthrough is possible as soon as today, in which case the matter would be to EU leaders when they meet Oct. 17-18, according to the official.While the sticking points remain the same, Barnier’s optimism reflects U.K. willingness to address EU concerns, said the official. Barnier himself, walking by reporters in a hallway in Luxembourg, told them the search for a Brexit agreement is an “ongoing process.”Barnier Sees Chances of Significant Progress (11:05 a.m.)Here’s a bit more from Barnier’s discussion with EU ministers in Luxembourg. “Not all that U.K. has been saying in the last days is totally unacceptable,” the chief negotiator said, according to one of the people in the meeting. “They have moved in our direction on key points and that’s why I think we still can make significant progress today,” he said, according to the official.Rees-Mogg: Parliament Would Approve Deal (10:45 a.m.)Jacob Rees-Mogg, the U.K. minister in charge of steering legislation through the House of Commons, said that if Johnson secures a deal with the EU, it could be ratified by Parliament very quickly. “The votes are there,” Rees-Mogg told LBC radio.For any deal to pass, the issue of the Irish border would need to be solved in order to guarantee the support of the Democratic Unionist Party, which has 10 crucial votes in the legislature.“I don’t know what is being discussed in Brussels,” Rees-Mogg told LBC. “Basically, I am trusting Boris Johnson because he has been a Brexiteer before the term Brexiteer existed.”Barclay: Deal is “Very Much” Possible (10:45 a.m.)“Talks are ongoing and we need to give them space,” U.K. Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told reporters in Luxembourg. He added that a “deal is very much possible.”Merkel Promises to Work to ‘Last Minute’ (10:40 a.m.)Chancellor Angela Merkel says Brexit talks are like “squaring the circle,” but she will continue to work for a deal until the “last minute.”“It’s very, very complicated,” Merkel said in a speech in Berlin at an industrial conference. “We’ll work on it until the last minute.”Text Ready for Summit? (10:30 a.m.)Barnier has told EU ministers that there is a chance the two sides could have a consolidated legal text ready by Thursday’s summit, according to two officials present at the meeting. The two sides are closing in on an agreement on the Stormont lock and customs checks in Northern Ireland.Barnier cautioned that the talks could still go one of three ways: conclude, reach a deadlock, or need to continue after the summit. He plans to debrief the bloc’s envoys in Brussels on Wednesday about the outcome of the discussions.U.K. Carmakers call for EU deal (10 a.m.)After spending more than 500 million pounds ($628 million) preparing for Brexit, British carmakers made a last-ditch call to the government to reach a deal. Crashing out of the EU would threaten jobs and the industry’s long-term survival, the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders said on Tuesday.U.K. Submits New Proposals (9:55 a.m.)The U.K. submitted new proposals to EU negotiators on Monday clarifying its plan for customs rules for Northern Ireland, two officials said.Barnier had told diplomats on Sunday that the U.K.’s plans were too complex and risked opening up the European single market to fraud. Monday’s proposals were aimed at responding to that, the officials said.France Says a Deal Is Up to the U.K. (9:30 a.m.)France’s Europe minister, Amelie de Montchalin, said she is still hopeful of a Brexit deal -- but the onus is on the U.K. to bring forward its proposals. The complexity of what was being requested for the Irish border and the short time available make things difficult, she said.“An agreement is possible, but it has to be a balanced deal for everyone,” she said.U.K. to Submit New Proposals (9:20 a.m.)The U.K. will bring forward new proposals today, RTE’s Europe’s editor Tony Connelly reported, citing two unidentified people familiar with the matter. It is not clear if they are revised version of the current British plans being discussed -- which involve keeping Northern Ireland in both the EU and U.K.’s customs zones -- or a different plan, Connelly added.Late Night Talks (9:15 a.m.)In a sign of how intensive the Brexit negotiations have become, they didn’t break up until about 11:30 p.m. on Monday, officials with knowledge of the talks said. They have already resumed in Brussels on Tuesday morning, they said.German Minister Not Sure Deal Is Close (9:10 a.m.)“I’m not quite sure a deal is close but we’re doing our best to find a good deal,” Germany’s Europe Minister Michael Roth told reporters in Luxembourg. “A hard Brexit would be a disaster, not just for the U.K., but also for the 27.”Roth said Germany was “extremely flexible” but that the integrity of the single market and the Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland after decades of violence, were key.Dutch Minister Says Proposal Needs More Work (8:56 a.m.)The foreign minister from the Netherlands told reporters that the U.K. offer indicates progress, but more work needs to be done.“The U.K. proposal contains some steps forward but doesn’t yet guarantee that the single market will be protected,” Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok told reporters in Luxembourg. “There have been intensive talks and they’re still going on, but let’s use the remaining time until Oct. 31.”Pound Gains After Barnier Comments (8:50 a.m.)The pound jumped on Barnier’s comments, rising as much as 0.7% to $1.2698, close to the three-month high touched last week after leaders said they could see a “pathway” to a potential Brexit deal. Hedge funds and asset managers have been paring their bets on a weaker pound, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.Barnier Says Brexit Deal Difficult, Possible (8:35 a.m)EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said a Brexit deal is possible this week but talks remain tough. “Even if an agreement will be difficult -- more and more difficult to be frank -- it will still be possible this week,” Barnier told reporters in Luxembourg.“Reaching an agreement is still possible. Obviously, any agreement must work for everyone, the whole of the U.K. and the whole of the EU,” he said.He added that it’s high time to “turn good intentions into a legal text.”Earlier:Boris Johnson’s Brexit Deal On Knife Edge as EU Needs More TimeJohnson Has a Big Brexit Problem: His Northern Irish FriendsThe Brexit Threat to World Markets Remains Too Huge to Ignore\--With assistance from Thomas Penny, John Ainger, Jessica Shankleman, Patrick Donahue, Kitty Donaldson, Vassilis Karamanis, Helene Fouquet, Leo Laikola, Jonathan Stearns, Robert Hutton and Greg Ritchie.To contact the reporters on this story: Ian Wishart in Brussels at iwishart@bloomberg.net;Nikos Chrysoloras in Brussels at nchrysoloras@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Edward Evans, Tim RossFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

The Latest: Erdogan rejects call for ceasefire in Syria

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he rejects a call from U.S. President Donald Trump to declare a ceasefire and halt Turkey's military offensive in northeastern Syria. Turkey's leader also told a group of journalists Tuesday that he is not concerned about the presence of Syrian government troops moving into the city of Manbij, but does not want Syrian Kurdish fighters to remain.

Your Evening Briefing

(Bloomberg) -- Want to receive this post in your inbox every afternoon? Sign up hereCould it be? U.K. and European Union negotiators in Brussels are closing in on a draft Brexit deal, and they’re actually optimistic that they can reach a breakthrough. Any accord will of course hinge on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson has the support of various groups, not the least of which is Parliament. Still, the pound surged on the news to its highest level in almost five months. U.S. stocks rose as well because of some positive earnings news.  Here are today’s top storiesThe first round of those earnings showed that months of market turmoil have pushed JPMorgan even further ahead of its rivals.The candidates for the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential nomination will debate tonight in Ohio.Rudolph Giuliani, the embattled ex-mayor and lawyer at the center of the impeachment investigation of his client, President Donald Trump, said he would defy a House subpoena. Giuliani’s lawyer also quit Tuesday, saying he was only hired to say his client wouldn’t comply.Democracy protesters pushing back against China’s influence in Hong Kong aren’t just focusing on Carrie Lam and the police. They’re also targeting mainland-based banks and brands with fire bombs, metal bars and spray paint. Our writers at Bloomberg Opinion warn that, no matter what happens with the proposed partial trade deal between China and the U.S., a trade war recession is on the way, and it probably can’t be stopped.About that trade deal Trump announced Friday: Beijing wants a rollback in tariffs before it will agree to buy as much as $50 billion of American agriculture products (which was, according to Trump, part of the bargain).What’s Joe Weisenthal thinking about? The Bloomberg news director is mulling the crisis at WeWork will end up costing thousands of people their jobs, as the company slashes headcount. In a different market environment, where public equity investors would be willing to fund years more of losses, the firm would probably still be growing its payroll. Such is the feedback loop between financial conditions and markets and real world consequences for workers and investment. WeWork’s saga may be extreme, Joe says, but it’s one being played out all over the place. What you’ll need to know tomorrowThe founder of electric vehicle startup Faraday filed for bankruptcy. A Lufthansa unit grounded the Airbus A220 over an engine fault. A Swiss bank keeps cropping up in Venezuelan corruption cases. Meanwhile, Venezuela just hiked its minimum wage by 275%. Justin Trudeau is in trouble, and Canadian voters will say how much. MGM sold the Bellagio to Blackstone for $4.25 billion. New Apple Beats headphones now have noise-cancelling capability.What you’ll want to read in Climate ChangedAmerica’s green economy is worth $1.3 trillion. America has another economy, one that doesn’t poison the planet. Indeed, if the U.S. wants to extend economic growth, it should double down on cleaning up the environment and fighting climate change, two industries fueling jobs and revenue, according to a new analysis by University College London researchers. They concluded that almost 9.5 million Americans, or about 4% of the workforce, are employed in a “green economy” that generates $1.3 trillion in annual revenue, or 7% of GDP. To contact the author of this story: David Rovella in New York at drovella@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

UN ends Haiti peacekeeping operations, urges end to crisis

The UN Security Council ended 15 years of peacekeeping operations in Haiti on Tuesday, voicing regret that the country is still saddled with huge economic, political and social woes. The United Nations first sent peacekeepers to Haiti after then-president Jean-Bertrand Aristide was overthrown by the army in 2004 under the pressure of a popular uprising. In 2017 those soldiers were replaced by a UN police mission whose numbers dropped gradually from 1,300 to 600 and are now to be replaced by a scaled down political mission.

U.S. prosecutors accuse Turkey's Halkbank of scheme to evade Iran sanctions

U.S. prosecutors on Tuesday charged Turkey's majority state-owned Halkbank with taking part in a multibillion-dollar scheme to evade U.S. sanctions against Iran - an indictment that may complicate tension between NATO allies Washington and Ankara. The charges unsealed in federal court in Manhattan mirror those against one of Halkbank's former executives, Mehmet Hakan Atilla, who was found guilty and sentenced to prison after a trial in the same court last year. Halkbank could not immediately be reached for comment after business hours in Turkey.

Turkey's president pulled one over on Trump — and some of the US's most dangerous adversaries are the big winners

The Islamic State, Russia, Iran, and Syria are all poised to strengthen their positions amid the chaos triggered by Trump's abrupt withdrawal.

Egypt says archaeologists uncovered 20 ancient coffins

Egypt's Antiquities Ministry says archaeologists have uncovered at least 20 ancient wooden coffins in the southern city of Luxor. A brief statement from the ministry says Tuesday says archaeologists found the coffins in the Asasif Necropolis. Egypt has sought publicity for its archaeological discoveries in the hopes of reviving its tourism sector, which was badly hit by the turmoil following the 2011 uprising.

Clinton Decries Trump’s Policy by Tweet: Campaign Update

(Bloomberg) -- Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said Donald Trump’s policy shifts on Syria have allowed Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin to strengthen their control of the war-torn country.She also criticized Trump’s narrow focus on trade in dealing with China, saying Beijing’s expansion in the South China Sea and its development of ports overseas threaten national security.Speaking at the Carnegie Peacebuilding Conversations in New York, Clinton said Trump’s approach to foreign policy leaves his team and U.S. allies without direction.“There’s no work being done in this administration,” Clinton said. “Everybody waits around to see what the latest tweet is, or the latest South Lawn press statement is. That’s how policy is being made. And we are going to pay a really big price for that in the years ahead.”Trump Team Plans Flyover of Democratic Debate (12:54 p.m.)Donald Trump isn’t letting Ohio voters forget about him as 12 Democratic presidential candidates prepare to take the stage in suburban Columbus for their fourth debate Tuesday night.The president’s re-election campaign said it plans to use aerial advertising over Westerville, where the debate is being held at Otterbein University, with a 35-foot by 105-foot banner saying, “SOCIALISM DESTROYS OHIO JOBS. VOTE TRUMP.”The campaign also took out a full-page ad in today’s Columbus Dispatch with a picture of the top three Democrats -- Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders -- and captions suggesting they will “wreck Ohio’s economy” with a picture of a smiling Trump below.Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel is also hosting a lunchtime “women for Trump” event near the debate site to counter Democrats’ narrative that they can win suburban women’s votes. -- Mark NiquetteImpeachment Inquiry Helps GOP Fundraising (11:55 a.m.)President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign says Democrats’ impeachment inquiry is helping them recruit volunteers and raise money.The campaign picked up 50,000 new donors in recent weeks, and supporters who have never volunteered for campaigns are coming forward, officials said in a conference call with reporters. Trump supporters view the House impeachment inquiry as an effort by Democrats to nullify their votes, the officials said.In coming weeks, the campaign plans to increase the number of rallies Trump holds around the country, said the officials, who spoke on condition they not be identified. -- Jennifer JacobsCOMING UPThe fourth Democratic debate is scheduled for Tuesday at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio. Twelve candidates are slated to take part: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang.\--With assistance from Jennifer Jacobs and Mark Niquette.To contact the reporter on this story: David Wainer in New York at dwainer3@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, Max BerleyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Putin talks investments and space in Abu Dhabi

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed deals worth over $1.3 billion with the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, wrapping up a tour of the Gulf where he also courted investment in Saudi Arabia. A day after inking a major oil cooperation deal with Riyadh, Putin was greeted by Abu Dhabi's powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. "You will not be disappointed by your Russian partners," Putin said.

European growth failed to 'lift off' amid Brexit, slowdown: IMF economist

Europe's economic expansion sputtered this year, disappointing expectations due to the well-known Brexit concerns, but also because of issues within major economies like Germany and Italy, a top IMF economist told AFP. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, deputy director of the IMF Research Department, said weakening global demand means those export-dependent economies face growing challenges. "Europe had a very strong 2017 and very strong beginning of 2018 and we were really hoping we would see a liftoff in European growth," he said in an interview.

German climate plan brings sharp air travel tax hike

Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet will sign off draft laws on new green taxes and subsidies this week, including much harsher charges on short-haul flights, German government sources said Tuesday. While environmentalists immediately labelled the changes insufficient, conservatives and the far right have challenged it, saying it goes too far.

Russian troll freed in Belarus after arrest for US election tampering

Anna Bogacheva was detained and briefly threatened with extradition to the US after being named in Mueller reportRobert Mueller alleges that Anna Bogacheva and others posed as US citizens to set up social media accounts aimed at swaying the 2016 presidential vote. Photograph: Tom Brenner/ReutersA Russian national charged with attempting to meddle in the 2016 American presidential elections was briefly threatened with extradition to the United States after being arrested in Belarus, before she was was freed by local authorities. Anna Bogacheva was detained late on Monday evening by police at a hotel in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, while on holiday with her family, according to RIA Novosti, the Russian state news agency. Her lawyer said she had been detained under an international arrest warrant issued by the United States.Bogacheva was one of 13 Russians indicted last year by the US justice department after the investigation into election interference led by the special counsel Robert Mueller. Three Russian entities, including a notorious state-backed “troll farm” called the Internet Research Agency, were also indicted. Russia’s foreign ministry confirmed on Tuesday that Bogacheva had been arrested and said that it was providing consular assistance. But shortly after the foreign ministry statement, Russia’s embassy in Minsk announced that Bogacheva had been freed. A spokesman for Belarus’ general prosecutor’s office said that there were “no grounds” for her arrest or extradition to the United States. “She has been released,” the spokesman said, adding that Minsk would apply to have the international warrant for her arrest invalidated on the territory of Belarus. Mueller alleges that the St Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency’s employees, including Bogacheva, posed as US citizens to set up social media accounts aimed at swaying the 2016 presidential vote that brought Donald Trump to power, as well as sowing “discord” in the US political system. US investigators say the Internet Research Agency is controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a wealthy businessman known as “Putin’s chef” because his companies often provide catering services to the Kremlin. Prigozhin is also reported to provide mercenaries for Russia’s military operations in Syria, Ukraine and parts of Africa. Bogacheva is accused of working as a translator for the agency and overseeing its data analysis group. She and Alexander Krylova, another agency employee, travelled to the United States in June 2014 on what US investigators say was an intelligence gathering trip. Bogacheva’s arrest in Minsk briefly looked set to derail relations between Belarus and Russia. Viktor Vodolatsky, an MP from Vladimir Putin’s ruling United Russia party, accused Belarus of a “betrayal” before news of her release broke.

Wildfires spread through parts of Lebanon, Syria

Wildfires spread through parts of Lebanon on Tuesday after forcing some residents to flee their homes in the middle of the night, while others were stuck inside as the flames reached villages south of Beirut, authorities said. There were no reports of fatalities from the fires — among the worst to hit Lebanon in years. Fire crews were overwhelmed by the flames in the Mount Lebanon region early Tuesday, forcing the Interior Ministry to send riot police with engines equipped with water cannons to help.

Nearly Half of Food Waste Happens Before It Reaches the Market

The U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization says 14 percent of all food produced never even makes it to the consumer.